ABSTRACT
Background: COVID-19 emerged in China for the first time, and spread rapidly in the world and in Iran. It caused the death of many people. This study was performed to estimate the years of life lost due to COVID-19 in southwestern Iran. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, deaths due to COVID-19 were investigated from February 20, 2020 to November 20, 2020 in southwestern Iran. Descriptive analyses included: sex ratio of deaths, mean and standard deviation of quantitative variable of age at the time of death, and specific ages-sex mortality rates. Years of life lost due to COVID-19 were estimated using standard life expectancy and lifetime table of the World Health Organization in 2015. Results: The number of deaths due to COVID-19 was 938 cases. The sex ratio of mortality (male to female) was 1.2, and the people over the age of 80 years had the highest mortality rates in both sexes. The total number of years of life lost was 13205 years, and the 60-69 age group had the highest years of life lost. Conclusion: Based on the findings of our study, health policymakers need to implement timely strategies and plans to reduce deaths especially for the possibleadvent of the next wave of COVID-19. © 2022 The authors.
ABSTRACT
Background: The outbreak of COVID-19 is rapidly spreading around the world and became a pandemic disease. For help to better planning of interventions, this study was conducted to forecast the number of daily new infected cases with COVID-19 for next thirty days in Iran. Methods: The information of observed Iranian new cases from 19th Feb to 30th Mar 2020 was used to predict the number of patients until 29th Apr. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Mov-ing Average (ARIMA) models were applied for prediction. The data was prepared from daily reports of Iran Ministry of Health and open datasets provided by the JOHN Hopkins. To compare models, dataset was sepa-rated into train and test sets. Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) was the comparison criteria. Results: Both algorithms forecasted an exponential increase in number of newly infected patients. If the spreading pattern continues the same as before, the number of daily new cases would be 7872 and 9558 by 29th Apr, respectively by ANN and ARIMA. While Model comparison confirmed that ARIMA prediction was more accurate than ANN. Conclusion: COVID-19 is contagious disease, and has infected many people in Iran. Our results are an alarm for health policy planners and decision-makers, to make timely decisions, control the disease and provide the equipment needed. © 2020, Iranian Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved.